Monte Carlo Simulation

Blog posts and articles about Monte Carlo simulation, parameter optimization, and sensitivity analysis applied to Lean and Six Sigma quality improvement projects.

If you have a process that isn’t meeting specifications, using the Monte Carlo simulation and optimization tools in Companion by Minitab can help. Here’s how you, as an engineer in the medical device industry, could use Companion to improve a packaging process and help ensure patient safety. Your product line at AlphaGamma Medical Devices is shipped in heat-sealed packages with a minimum seal... Continue Reading
If you have a process that isn’t meeting specifications, using Monte Carlo simulation and optimization can help. Companion by Minitab offers a powerful, easy-to-use tool for Monte Carlo simulation and optimization, and in this blog we'll look at the case of product engineers involved in steel production for automobile parts, and how they could use Companion to improve a process. The tensile... Continue Reading
If you have a process that isn’t meeting specifications, using the Monte Carlo simulation and optimization tool in Companion by Minitab can help. Here’s how you, as a chemical technician for a paper products company, could use Companion to optimize a chemical process and ensure it consistently delivers a paper product that meets brightness standards. The brightness of Perfect Papyrus Company’s new... Continue Reading
As someone who has collected and analyzed real data for a living, the idea of using simulated data for a Monte Carlo simulation sounds a bit odd. How can you improve a real product with simulated data? In this post, I’ll help you understand the methods behind Monte Carlo simulation and walk you through a simulation example using Companion by Minitab. Companion by Minitab is a software platform that... Continue Reading
In week 16 of the 2016 NFL season, the Cleveland Browns were able to avoid going into the history books as only the second team to finish the season 0-16. They claimed their first and only win of the season after San Diego missed a last-second field goal. While they came very close to going winless, the statistics paint a very different picture of the odds of that occurrence.  Going 0-16 is hard. Usi... Continue Reading
Regardless of who you support in the upcoming U.S. election, we can all agree that it’s been a very bumpy ride! It’s been a particularly chaotic election cycle. Wouldn’t it be nice if we could peek into the future and see potential election results right now? That’s what we'll do in this post! In 2012, I used binary logistic regression to predict that President Obama would be reelected for a second... Continue Reading
The college football season is here, and this raises a very important question: Is Alabama going to be undefeated when they win the national championship, or will they lose a regular-season game along the way? Okay, so it's not a given that Alabama is going to win the championship this year, but when you've won 4 of the last 7 you're definitely the odds-on favorite. However, what if we wanted to take... Continue Reading
Monte Carlo simulation has all kinds of useful manufacturing applications. And - in celebration of Pi Day - I thought it would be apropos to show how you can even use Monte Carlo simulation to estimate pi, which of course is the mathematical constant that represents the ratio of a circle’s circumference to its diameter. For our example, let’s start with a circle of radius 1 inscribed within a... Continue Reading
Suppose that you have designed a brand new product with many improved features that well help create a much better customer experience. Now you must ensure that it is manufactured according to the best quality and reliability standards, so that it gets the excellent long-term reputation it deserves from potential customers. You need to move quickly and seamlessly from Research and Development into... Continue Reading
Before I started studying statistics, references to a mysterious "Monte Carlo Method" made it seem like the most cryptic thing in the data-analysis universe. People were developing programs dedicated solely to Monte Carlo, and offering special workshops and seminars. It seemed so great and terrible that someone like me—mere mortal that I am—would never be able to understand it.  Fast-forward a few... Continue Reading