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P Value

Blog posts and articles about how to use and interpret the P Value statistic in quality improvement efforts.

See if this sounds fair to you. I flip a coin. Heads: You win $1.Tails: You pay me $1. You may not like games of chance, but you have to admit it seems like a fair game. At least, assuming the coin is a normal, balanced coin, and assuming I’m not a sleight-of-hand magician who can control the coin. How about this next game? You pay me $2 to play.I flip a coin over and over until it comes up heads.Your... Continue Reading
I blogged a few months back about three different Minitab tools you can use to examine your data over time. Did you know you that you can also use a simple run chart to display how your process data changes over time? Of course those “changes” could be evidence of special-cause variation, which a run chart can help you see. What’s special-cause variation, and how’s it different from common-cause... Continue Reading

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While some posts in our Minitab blog focus on understanding t-tests and t-distributions this post will focus more simply on how to hand-calculate the t-value for a one-sample t-test (and how to replicate the p-value that Minitab gives us).  The formulas used in this post are available within Minitab Statistical Software by choosing the following menu path: Help > Methods and Formulas > Basic... Continue Reading
Design of Experiments (DOE) is the perfect tool to efficiently determine if key inputs are related to key outputs. Behind the scenes, DOE is simply a regression analysis. What’s not simple, however, is all of the choices you have to make when planning your experiment. What X’s should you test? What ranges should you select for your X’s? How many replicates should you use? Do you need center... Continue Reading
In the great 1971 movie Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, the reclusive owner of the Wonka Chocolate Factory decides to place golden tickets in five of his famous chocolate bars, and allow the winners of each to visit his factory with a guest. Since restarting production after three years of silence, no one has come in or gone out of the factory. Needless to say, there is enormous interest in... Continue Reading
In my last post, we took the red pill and dove deep into the unarguably fascinating and uncompromisingly compelling world of the matrix plot. I've stuffed this post with information about a topic of marginal interest...the marginal plot. Margins are important. Back in my English composition days, I recall that margins were particularly prized for the inverse linear relationship they maintained with... Continue Reading
Time series data is proving to be very useful these days in a number of different industries. However, fitting a specific model is not always a straightforward process. It requires a good look at the series in question, and possibly trying several different models before identifying the best one. So how do we get there? In this post, I'll take a look at how we can examine our data and get a feel... Continue Reading
There may not be a situation more perilous than being a character on Game of Thrones. Warden of the North, Hand of the King, and apparent protagonist of the entire series? Off with your head before the end of the first season! Last male heir of a royal bloodline? Here, have a pot of molten gold poured on your head! Invited to a wedding? Well, you probably know what happens at weddings in the show. ... Continue Reading
In part 2 of this series, we used graphs and tables to see how individual factors affected rates of patient participation in a cardiac rehabilitation program. This initial look at the data indicated that ease of access to the hospital was a very important contributor to patient participation. Given this revelation, a bus or shuttle service for people who do not have cars might be a good way to... Continue Reading
Analysis of variance (ANOVA) can determine whether the means of three or more groups are different. ANOVA uses F-tests to statistically test the equality of means. In this post, I’ll show you how ANOVA and F-tests work using a one-way ANOVA example. But wait a minute...have you ever stopped to wonder why you’d use an analysis of variance to determine whether means are different? I'll also show how... Continue Reading
by Laerte de Araujo Lima, guest blogger The NBA's 2015-16 season will be one for the history books. Not only was it the last season of Kobe Bryan, who scored 60 points in his final game, but the Golden State Warriors set a new wins record, beating the previous record set by 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. The Warriors seem likely to take this season's NBA title, in large part thanks to the performance of... Continue Reading
In statistics, t-tests are a type of hypothesis test that allows you to compare means. They are called t-tests because each t-test boils your sample data down to one number, the t-value. If you understand how t-tests calculate t-values, you’re well on your way to understanding how these tests work. In this series of posts, I'm focusing on concepts rather than equations to show how t-tests work.... Continue Reading
T-tests are handy hypothesis tests in statistics when you want to compare means. You can compare a sample mean to a hypothesized or target value using a one-sample t-test. You can compare the means of two groups with a two-sample t-test. If you have two groups with paired observations (e.g., before and after measurements), use the paired t-test. How do t-tests work? How do t-values fit in? In this... Continue Reading
About a year ago, a reader asked if I could try to explain degrees of freedom in statistics. Since then,  I’ve been circling around that request very cautiously, like it’s some kind of wild beast that I’m not sure I can safely wrestle to the ground. Degrees of freedom aren’t easy to explain. They come up in many different contexts in statistics—some advanced and complicated. In mathematics, they're... Continue Reading
P values have been around for nearly a century and they’ve been the subject of criticism since their origins. In recent years, the debate over P values has risen to a fever pitch. In particular, there are serious fears that P values are misused to such an extent that it has actually damaged science. In March 2016, spurred on by the growing concerns, the American Statistical Association (ASA) did... Continue Reading
Probability. It's really the heart and soul of most statistical analyses. Anytime you get a p-value, you're dealing with a probability. The probability is telling you how likely it was (or will be) for an event to occur. It has numerous applications across a wide variety of areas. But today I want to focus on the probability of a specific event. A basketball tournament. I’ll be using the Sagarin... Continue Reading
I am a bit of an Oscar fanatic. Every year after the ceremony, I religiously go online to find out who won the awards and listen to their acceptance speeches. This year, I was so chuffed to learn that Leonardo Di Caprio won his first Oscar for his performance in The Revenant in the 88thAcademy Awards—after five nominations in  previous ceremonies. As a longtime Di Caprio fan, I still remember... Continue Reading
What is an interaction? It’s when the effect of one factor depends on the level of another factor. Interactions are important when you’re performing ANOVA, DOE, or a regression analysis. Without them, your model may be missing an important term that helps explain variability in the response! For example, let’s consider 3-point shooting in the NBA. We previously saw that the number of 3-point... Continue Reading
In my last post, I looked at viewership data for the five seasons of HBO’s hit series Game of Thrones. I created a time series plot in Minitab that showed how viewership rose season by season, and how it varied episode by episode within each season.   My next step is to fit a statistical model to the data, which I hope will allow me to predict the viewing numbers for future episodes.    I am going to... Continue Reading
If you want to convince someone that at least a basic understanding of statistics is an essential life skill, bring up the case of Lucia de Berk. Hers is a story that's too awful to be true—except that it is completely true. A flawed analysis irrevocably altered de Berk's life and kept her behind bars for five years, and the fact that this analysis targeted and harmed just one person makes it more... Continue Reading