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P Value

Blog posts and articles about how to use and interpret the P Value statistic in quality improvement efforts.

In regression analysis, overfitting a model is a real problem. An overfit model can cause the regression coefficients, p-values, and R-squared to be misleading. In this post, I explain what an overfit model is and how to detect and avoid this problem. An overfit model is one that is too complicated for your data set. When this happens, the regression model becomes tailored to fit the quirks and... Continue Reading
Imagine a multi-million dollar company that released a product without knowing the probability that it will fail after a certain amount of time. “We offer a 2 year warranty, but we have no idea what percentage of our products fail before 2 years.” Crazy, right? Anybody who wanted to ensure the quality of their product would perform a statistical analysis to look at the reliability and survival of... Continue Reading
If you want to use data to predict the impact of different variables, whether it's for business or some personal interest, you need to create a model based on the best information you have at your disposal. In this post and subsequent posts throughout the football season, I'm going to share how I've been developing and applying a model for predicting the outcomes of 4th down decisions in Big... Continue Reading
by Colin Courchesne, guest blogger, representing his Governor's School research team.   High-level research opportunities for high school students are rare; however, that was just what the New Jersey Governor’s School of Engineering and Technology provided.  Bringing together the best and brightest rising seniors from across the state, the Governor’s School, or GSET for short, tasks teams of... Continue Reading
Just 100 years ago, very few statistical tools were available and the field was largely unknown. Since then, there has been an explosion of tools available, as well as ever-increasing awareness and use of statistics.   While most readers of the Minitab Blog are looking to pick up new tools or improve their use of commonly-applied ones, I thought it would be worth stepping back and talking about one... Continue Reading
When you run a regression in Minitab, you receive a huge batch of output, and often it can be hard to know where to start. A lot of times, we get overwhelmed and just go straight to p-values, ignoring a lot of valuable information in the process. This post will give you an introduction to one of the other statistics Minitab displays for you, the VIF, or Variance Inflation Factor.  To start, let's... Continue Reading
Every now and then I’ll test my Internet speed at home using such sites as http://speedtest.comcast.net  or http://www.att.com/speedtest/.  My need to perform these tests could stem from the cool-looking interfaces they employ on their site, as they display the results using analog speedometers and RPM meters. They could also stem from the validation that I need in "getting what I am paying for,"... Continue Reading
By Matthew Barsalou, guest blogger.   Many statistical tests assume the data being tested came from a normal distribution. Violating the assumption of normality can result in incorrect conclusions. For example, a Z test may indicate a new process is more efficient than an older process when this is not true. This could result in a capital investment for equipment that actually results in higher... Continue Reading
Previously, I’ve written about how to interpret regression coefficients and their individual P values. I’ve also written about how to interpret R-squared to assess the strength of the relationship between your model and the response variable. Recently I've been asked, how does the F-test of the overall significance and its P value fit in with these other statistics? That’s the topic of this post! In... Continue Reading
When someone gives you data to analyze, you can gauge how your life is going by what you've received. Get a Minitab file, or even comma-separated values, and everything feels fine. Get a PDF file, and you start to think maybe you’re cursed because of your no-good-dirty-rotten-pig-stealing-great-great-grandfather and wish that you were someone else. For those of you who might be in such dire... Continue Reading
I've never understood the fascination with selfies. Maybe it's because I'm over 50. After surviving the slings and arrows of a half a century on Earth, the minute or two I spend in front of the bathroom mirror each morning is more than enough selfie time for me. Still, when I heard that Microsoft had an online app that estimates the age of any face on a photo, I was intrigued. How would the app... Continue Reading
  The NFL recently announced that after scoring a touchdown, teams will be required to kick the extra point from the 15 yard line as opposed to the 2 yard line. This is a pretty big change. And whether you’re trying to improve the quality of your process, or simply trying to make a sporting event more exciting, it’s always good to know what kind of effects your change will have. So I’m going to use... Continue Reading
In my previous post, I wrote about the hypothesis testing ban in the Journal of Basic and Applied Social Psychology. I showed how P values and confidence intervals provide important information that descriptive statistics alone don’t provide. In this post, I'll cover the editors’ concerns about hypothesis testing and how to avoid the problems they describe. The editors describe hypothesis testing... Continue Reading
If you’ve checked out What’s New in Minitab 17, you’ve had the chance to see that Conditional Formatting leads the list. If you’ve been reading the Minitab blog, you’ve had the chance to see demonstrations with Marvel’s Avengers and the Human Development Index. But you might not have had a chance to see that you can highlight large standardized residuals from a regression model and that the... Continue Reading
By Erwin Gijzen, Guest Blogger In my previous post, we assessed the out-of-spec level for a process with capability analysis and visualized process variability using a control chart. Our goal is to reduce variability, but when a process has a multitude of categorical and continuous variables, identifying root causes can be a huge challenge. Analyzing covariance—using the statistical technique... Continue Reading
by Matthew Barsalou, guest blogger.  The old saying “if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and looks like a duck, then it must be a duck” may be appropriate in bird watching; however, the same idea can’t be applied when observing a statistical distribution. The dedicated ornithologist is often armed with binoculars and a field guide to the local birds and this should be sufficient. A... Continue Reading
Banned! In February 2015, editor David Trafimow and associate editor Michael Marks of the Journal of Basic and Applied Social Psychology declared that the null hypothesis statistical testing procedure is invalid. They promptly banned P values, confidence intervals, and hypothesis testing from the journal. The journal now requires descriptive statistics and effect sizes. They also encourage large... Continue Reading
As a Minitab trainer, one of the most common questions I get from training participants is "what should I do when my data isn’t normal?" A large number of statistical tests are based on the assumption of normality, so not having data that is normally distributed typically instills a lot of fear. Many practitioners suggest that if your data are not normal, you should do a nonparametric version of... Continue Reading
In 1898, Russian economist Ladislaus Bortkiewicz published his first statistics book entitled Das Gesetz der keinem Zahlen, in which he included an example that eventually became famous for illustrating the Poisson distribution. Bortkiewicz researched the annual deaths by horse kicks in the Prussian Army from 1875-1984. Data was recorded from 14 different army corps, with one being the Guard... Continue Reading