Can data really predict who’ll take home the NCAA trophy before the season’s even over?
Spoiler: it can—and it does.
Why It Matters
In State College, Pennsylvania, the home of Minitab headquarters and Penn State University, fall means one thing: football.
As the air cools and the playoff race heats up, it’s the perfect time to crunch some numbers and see which team’s performance won’t “turn over” when it matters most.
Finding the Right Data
To predict the 2025 national champion, I pulled data from sports-reference.com, a treasure trove of stats going all the way back to 1869 (yes, really!) when Princeton ruled the gridiron. But college football has changed—drastically. So instead of digging through dusty history, I focused on the College Football Playoff (CFP) era, which began in 2014.
Fun fact: Since 2014, every national champion has been ranked no lower than #5 in the final November AP Poll.
Translation: by November, the true contenders are already in view.
That insight led me to focus only on Top 10 teams, trimming the noise from the non-contenders.
Modeling the X’s and Y’s
My mission: predict the probability that each Top 10 team will win it all. Using classification models like Logistic Regression, Random Forests, and TreeNet, I trained Minitab to think like a football coach—with a spreadsheet.
Here’s what went into the model:
- OSRS & DSRS: Offensive and Defensive Simple Rating Systems—efficiency adjusted for schedule difficulty.
- Scoring Offense & Defense: Points for and against.
- Passing & Rushing Efficiency: Balance and adaptability on both sides of the ball.
- Total Offense & Defense: Yardage-based performance.
- SRS: Overall strength combining offense and defense.
- Win–Loss Record: The ultimate measure of consistency.
In short: everything that separates champions from teams that just look good in September.
Prepping the Data
I exported stats from 2014–2024 and sent them through the Minitab Data Center for cleaning and prep. With Minitab AI allowing much of the clean-up to be done through natural language plus the ability to save and automate repetitive steps, what used to take hours now runs like a well-oiled offense.
Because let’s be honest—no one wants to clean up 10 years of football data by hand.
Building the Model
Once the data was ready, I stacked it in Minitab Statistical Software and used: Automated Machine Learning > Discover Best Model (Binary Response)
That’s Minitab’s Predictive Analytics solution for quickly testing multiple models and identifying the one that scores best.
The winner? Random Forest. It delivered the most accurate predictions for “Winner” vs. “Loser.”
Key Insights
The Random Forest model uncovered the four biggest predictors of championship success:
- Win–Loss Record
- Defensive Strength (DSRS)
- Overall Strength (SRS)
- Scoring Defense
Takeaway: Defense still wins championships—confirmed by data, not just coaches.
2025 Predictions
Drum roll, please…
Using 2025 midseason stats for the Top 10 teams, I calculated each team’s probability of winning the title and standardized the results so they total to 100%.
As of November 12th, 2025, the model predicts:
Ohio State and Indiana have the best shot at the national title. Things are looking good for the Big Ten. Sorry, Georgia—this might not be your year.
Visualizing the Race
To make the results easier to follow, I built an interactive Minitab Dashboard.
With Minitab AI, it’s as simple as connecting your data source—charts, tables, and model results automatically combine into one dynamic view. It’s like your own version of ESPN’s College GameDay—minus the mascot heads.
Because the dashboard updates automatically as new data comes in, you can instantly see which teams are trending up or falling behind. It’s a real-time, data-driven way to follow the championship race.
What the Data Says
- Defense still wins championships. It’s the strongest differentiator between champions and contenders.
- Efficiency drives success. Balance wins games—and titles.
- Consistency counts. Teams with multiple losses rarely lift the trophy.
- Offense helps—but defense defines greatness.
- Data beats gut instinct. Minitab’s Predictive Analytics module distills chaos into clarity.
In short: stop guessing. Start modeling.
Final Thoughts
This analysis proves what football fans already know: championships aren’t decided by hype or headlines.
Defense, discipline, and data win championships—on the field and in business.
Want to Uncover Your Own Data Story? Let’s Model It Together With Minitab
The author, Cheryl Pammer, with her children at the 2019 National Championship game.